These teams could be primed for big second halves

Whereas subsequent month’s All-Star break is named the dividing line between the primary and second halves of the season, the midpoint of the schedule truly comes sooner than that. The MLB-leading Rays are slated to play their 81st sport on Sunday, with the remainder of the 29 golf equipment set to observe over the remainder of the week.

That makes this a great time to take inventory of the season. And whereas Tampa Bay has been something however disappointing, that’s in fact not the case for everybody. Nonetheless, issues can flip round shortly. In 2022, for instance, the Guardians adopted a 40-41 first half with a 52-29 second half, operating away with the AL Central. In the meantime, the 39-42 Mariners sprinted to a 51-30 end, snapping the franchise’s prolonged playoff drought.

Some crew (or groups) will pull off a feat like that in 2023, however who will it’s? We had seven MLB.com writers take a shot at answering that query, drafting the membership they’re most assured will enhance within the second half.

Listed here are the outcomes. (Groups are listed with their present document, by way of Saturday, in addition to their projected preseason recordby way of FanGraphs.)

1. Mother and father (37-40, .481)
Preseason projection: 91-71, .562

One in all a number of big-budget disappointments (see extra under) within the Nationwide League, the Padres had been anticipated to problem for MLB’s finest document after following up an NLCS look by including Xander Bogaerts to an already gifted roster. As an alternative, they’re underneath .500 and dealing with an 8.5-game deficit within the NL West behind the D-backs, Giants and Dodgers.

San Diego’s pitching employees has been largely terrific, permitting the fewest runs per sport (3.84) within the NL, however its offense hasn’t pulled its weight, averaging simply 4.31 runs per sport. The Padres’ offensive woes at catcher had been so dire that they grabbed Gary Sanchez (now together with his fourth group because the begin of the 2022 season) off waivers from the Mets. Sánchez has performed solely 24 video games with the Friars, however he’s already tied for fifth on the crew in homers.

San Diego does nonetheless have some holes in its lineup, however with Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Bogaerts main the best way and at all times aggressive president of baseball operations A.J. Preller certain to be looking out for reinforcements previous to the Commerce Deadline, the membership’s offense is unlikely to battle like this all season.

2. Astros (41-36, .532)
Preseason projection: 89-73, .549

The defending World Sequence champion Astros definitely didn’t anticipate to be tied for second within the AL West standings and 6.5 video games behind the Rangers in late June. However they definitely have the capability to vary that in a rush.

With Alvarez anticipated again for the stretch run, loads of expertise on the lively roster and the prospect to enhance on the Commerce Deadline, the Astros shall be simply wonderful. Or possibly much more than that.

3. Phillies (39-37, .513)
Preseason projection: 85-77, .525

Admittedly, the bounceback is already effectively underway in Philadelphia – after a rocky begin, they’re 14-7 in June – so this isn’t a tough promote.

The Phillies sank with their rotation’s sky-high 5.83 ERA in Could. Since June 3, Phillies starters have pitched to a mixed 1.78 ERA, greater than a run forward of the next-best crew over that interval (Marlins, 2.93). The increase they’ve gotten from Taijuan Walker specifically (1.50 ERA, .154 BA, .260 SLG) has been enormous in taking the strain off Aaron Nola. Ranger Suarezwho had just a few tough outings upon his return from the injured checklist final month, has settled again in.

Whereas pitching is at all times the bigger concern for the Phillies, it’s onerous to disregard that their lineup wants a man like Trea Turner to spherical it out. And though he scuffled by way of his first two months in Philly, he’s making a lot better contact of late (.302 xBA, .542 xSLG in June), suggesting a attribute second-half surge continues to be very a lot in play. Which, for sure, would make an enormous distinction for an at-times sluggish offense.

This crew has its shortcomings – that a lot we all know – however the Phillies had been in an analogous place this time final 12 months, and we’d remorse sleeping on them once more.

4. Cardinals (31-45, .408)
Preseason projection: 87-75, .537

It doesn’t matter what statistical metric you take a look at, there’s a near-unanimous consensus that the Cardinals have been wildly unfortunate up to now in 2023.

The place to start out? The Cardinals are 8-16 in one-run video games this season, which is tied for the second-most such losses by any crew (one fewer than Cleveland) and the third-worst win share in such video games. If we take a broader take a look at run differential as an entire, the Cardinals are solely at -18 regardless of their document, which is the most effective run differential by way of 76 video games by any crew with 31 or fewer wins within the twenty first century.

As for the superior statistics? In every of the next Statcast metrics, the Cardinals have been among the many 10 “unluckiest” MLB teams each offensively and defensively: batting common, slugging share and wOBA. (Being “unfortunate” refers to having a big hole between an precise metric and an anticipated one; e.g., the Cardinals pitching employees has allowed a .272 batting common however solely a .261 xBA).

And if the numbers aren’t actually your factor, how about just a little historical past lesson? The Cardinals have had a profitable document after the All-Star break yearly since 2009, the one MLB crew to take action over that span. The Cardinals have quite a lot of work to do to maintain their streak of 15 winning seasons alive, however each the stats and their historic traits counsel they’ve no less than a puncher’s likelihood to take action.

5. Mets (35-41, .461)
Preseason projection: 90-72, .556

It’s been a tough go for the Mets, who’re enduring a disastrous 6-14 document up to now within the month of June that has plummeted them down the standings. On the heels of a 101-win season in 2022 and after probably the most lively offseasons we’ve ever seen from a crew, their present placement needs to be considered as a disappointment.

The dangerous information is that they’ve dug themselves in such a giant gap that it’s a relative certainty that they received’t catch as much as the Braves within the NL East. The excellent news is that they’re nonetheless effectively inside hanging distance of a Wild Card spot, particularly when you think about the roster the Mets nonetheless boast. That is, in spite of everything, the identical Mets crew with names like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

They’ll must discover a method to enhance on either side of the ball, although. Via the midway level, they’re in the course of the pack in each runs scored (342) and wRC+ (103). It’s a steep dropoff for a membership that ranked within the top-5 by each of these measures in ‘22. They’ll want gamers like Jeff McNeil and Starling Martetwo cogs within the Mets offense final 12 months, to show it round within the second half.

Their league-average offense has not been sufficient to compensate for a Mets pitching employees that has been, put merely, not good. Mets pitchers had the Seventh-best ERA (3.58) and finest strikeout fee (26.3%) within the Majors final 12 months. In 2023, their ERA has skyrocketed to the sixth-worst within the Majors at 4.63 coupled with a 4% lower in strikeouts. They’ll want enormous enhancements from Verlander and Scherzer, who each boast comparatively excessive ERAs (4.50 and three.95, respectively) on the midway level.

6. Dodgers (43-33, .566)
Preseason projection: 88-74, .545

The Dodgers are already good proper now. However come on. These are the Dodgers. The Dodgers who’ve received 9 out of the final 10 NL West titles. The Dodgers who’ve received 100-plus video games in every of the final three full seasons, and 4 of the final 5. And so they’re sitting in third place within the West proper now?

Count on that to vary. The D-backs are a pleasant shock in first place, and the Giants are chugging alongside simply forward of the Dodgers in second, however the Dodgers are the most effective crew on this division. Freddie Freeman (.316 batting common) and Mookie Betts (18 house runs) are their typical MVP contender selves, Will Smith could be the most effective offensive catcher in baseball (.915 OPS), JD Martinez is having a resurgent season in L.A. (.560 slugging share) and Clayton Kershaw is ageless (2.72 ERA).

When Julio Urías and Max Muncy get again into the rotation and lineup from their respective accidents, the Dodgers can actually get rolling. Count on them to go on a run within the NL West. They have already got a greater run differential than Arizona (+48 to the D-backs’ +34), and so they have the easiest remaining strength of schedule of any crew in baseball. The D-backs’ lead on this division shouldn’t be protected. In truth, the Dodgers’ odds of profitable the NL West are nearly twice as excessive as Arizona’s, per FanGraphs — 47.6% to 19.6%.

7. Mariners (37-38, .493)
Preseason projection: 82-80, .506

On the midway level final season, the Mariners had been 39-42, and proper now, they’re 37-38. You might see that as a foul factor, since these aren’t best data on the midway level. Or you might see it as not so dangerous. In spite of everything, the 2022 membership received the following 12 video games in a row (a 14-game win streak general) and went 39-30 the remainder of the best way to achieve the postseason for the primary time in 21 years.

If this 12 months’s membership goes to do one thing related, it’s received to get the bats on observe. The pitching employees has executed its half, second within the Majors with a 3.49 FIP and first with an 11.5 fWAR. However the offense ranks sixteenth in MLB with a 99 wRC+.

Reigning AL Rookie of the 12 months Julius Rodriguez posted an .853 OPS with 28 homers and 25 steals in 2022, however up to now in ’23, his OPS is greater than 100 factors decrease. Add to that subpar performances by Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and AJ Pollockand the close to halving of Seattle’s playoff odds from 40 % to 21.5 % is smart.

However Hernández has proven indicators of probably popping out of his stoop, hitting .378 with seven extra-base hits (three homers) from June 3-17. Suárez had an honest run on the plate from June 10-17, when he hit .333 with two doubles and a homer. And let’s be actual: How lengthy can you retain J-Rod down?