How the Padres can buy smart at the Deadline

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat publication. To learn the total publication, click here. And subscribe to get it usually in your inbox.

The Padres return house tonight after ending a whopper of a three-city street journey to start the second half.

And should you had been hoping that journey may deliver some readability to their Commerce Deadline plans, nicely, I’ve obtained dangerous information for you.

After going 5-5 in Philadelphia, Toronto and Detroit, the Padres are proper again the place they had been two weeks in the past — 4 video games under .500, nonetheless making an attempt to chart a Deadline path.

Right here’s one path I feel is perhaps prudent: Purchase, however purchase sensible. Given their file, the Padres can’t afford to throw warning to the wind. However they had been additionally constructed to win now and shouldn’t sacrifice that pursuit simply but.

Right here’s a five-step Commerce Deadline plan with that objective in thoughts:

1. Skip the rental items
As a lot because the Padres wish to notice their win-now ambitions, their Deadline technique must be rooted in actuality. They sit six games back within the Wild Card race. Lacking the postseason isn’t merely doable. Objectively talking, it’s likelier than not. And, positive, the Padres can tilt these odds with a pair additions. However — until Shohei Ohtani is abruptly out there at an enormous low cost — they’d be sensible to take action by including items with a number of years of management. If it doesn’t work out this yr, they’ll have not less than bolstered their probabilities in 2024.

2. Don’t sacrifice high-end prospects
A yr in the past, the Padres depleted their farm with offers for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. Don’t look now, however that farm is perhaps on the verge of a rebirth. In Ethan Salas and Jackson Merrill, the Padres boast two of the game’s upper-echelon prospects. Pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling, each 2022 draftees, have additionally emerged as top-100 prospects. That’s fairly a basis. The Padres’ Deadline wants will not be giant sufficient the place it’s value sacrificing any of these high-end prospects. Neither are their World Sequence odds.

3. Add a slugger, glove be damned
The most cost effective strategy to discover offense? Don’t fear in regards to the place, don’t fear in regards to the protection. The Padres are in a spot the place they don’t want offensive assist at a selected spot. They simply want a bat. Any bat. The Matt Carpenter/Nelson Cruz tandem has not labored out — on both entrance. As such, the top-heavy nature of the Padres’ lineup is a matter. If they might bolster the underside of their order with yet one more bat, it will go a good distance.

4. Add one other reliever
Robert Suarez is again from harm — a kind of midseason additions that’s, colloquially, “nearly as good as making a commerce.” However the Padres’ pitching depth stays skinny. They’ve relied too closely on a small handful of relievers to cowl setup innings. They might actually use yet one more — and with a few their relievers hitting free company this winter — ideally a pitcher with a number of years of management. The Padres would nonetheless have query marks about their rotation depth. That’s value wanting into. However starters are dear, and one other reliever would not less than give them the choice to construct Nick Martinez again to a starter’s workload if the necessity arises.

5. Be able to pivot — do NOT stand pat
Clearly, the Padres have some elite expertise. However as constructed, their roster has too many flaws. Based mostly on 100 video games value of proof, it isn’t a playoff roster. If the Padres are going to make a push, they should make a pair additions. But when they spiral over the subsequent week? They should be able to promote and recoup some worth on elite rental items like Blake Snell and Josh Hader. Organizationally, the worst-case situation is one through which the Padres do nothing.