Draft strategy: Should you grab a TE early or play the waiting game?

Fantasy football draft technique and roster development are all the time hot-button subjects right now of yr.

There are conversations about how essential it’s to lock down one of many elite working backs early, why you should target a mobile quarterback as your starter, and even the best way to draft and stream D/STs.

And because of the latest dominance of Travis Kelcewho has led tight ends in fantasy scoring six of the previous seven seasons (together with outscoring the No. 2 tight finish by 101 factors in 2022), there may be a number of chatter about when Kelce ought to be chosen on this yr’s fantasy drafts … in addition to whether or not it is best to simply play the ready recreation if you happen to resolve to not spend a first-rounder on the Chiefs star.

That is the place our ESPN Fantasy employees is available in. We requested our analysts to provide their professionals and cons to drafting Kelce in Spherical 1, in addition to merely spending an early decide on a decent finish and which late-round bargains they are going to be looking for out in drafts this yr.

As you may see beneath, they are not all on the identical web page, which is simply one of many causes fantasy soccer is so enjoyable. There are various methods to construct a profitable group.

1. What are the professionals and cons of drafting Travis Kelce within the first spherical?

Eric Karabell: Drafting Kelce means you might have a TE pretty much as good as almost each WR and you do not even have to consider drafting one other TE once more. Then once more, there may be robust TE values in Spherical 10, and since you might have Kelce, you don’t have any want to research. Works each methods.

Eric Moody: Kelce supplies fantasy managers with a major weekly benefit at a place the place there are few difference-makers. The most important con is choosing him within the first spherical means you may miss out on one of many high fantasy working backs similar to Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor.

Liz Loza: The most important “professional” Kelce presents is safety at an intensely risky place. … Probably the most looming “con” managers face is the potential of Father Time lastly catching up with the 33-year-old and subsequently lacking out on rostering an elite WR like Tyreek Hill or a sought-after RB like Sesame Robinson (each of whom have common draft positions just like that of Kelce).

Matt Bowen: He is the No. 1 choice for Patrick Mahomesa quantity goal in one of many league’s most explosive offenses. … In his previous three seasons, Kelce has seen at the least 130 targets a yr, with a complete of 32 landing grabs throughout that stretch. Straightforward cash right here. Nevertheless, if you happen to do make the leap on Kelce, you’ll miss out on a Tier 1 participant at a premium place — working again or huge receiver — when you can simply wait on the tight finish place as a substitute. You’ll be able to nonetheless discover worth and manufacturing with a mid-tier TE1 similar to a George Kittle or Dallas Goedert.

2. What are the professionals and cons of drafting your TE earlier than you’ve got stuffed your flex spot?

Karabell: I assume I do not have a look at it that approach. It is all a part of one bigger puzzle. Draft primarily based on worth over want, at the least within the first 10 rounds, and most of the time you will note you continue to want a decent finish after you might have stuffed the flex spot. That goes for 10- and 12-team codecs.

Bowen: Drafting a Tier 1 tight finish early — Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson — might put you ready to keep away from the latest volatility we have seen on the place. I have been there, too. It will get lonely on that waiver wire each week. However by doing so, you are gifting away a possibility to land a pass-catching RB or a quantity WR in PPR codecs to slot in that flex spot. In 10-team leagues, let everybody else burn an early decide on a decent finish, as a result of that simply frees up extra beneficial gamers so as to add to your squad. In deeper leagues, I’ll peek on the tight ends somewhat earlier, however I am nonetheless eyeing that flex spot first. Sure, I may very well be leaping on the waiver wire by Week 3 to discover a beginning tight finish, however I actually do not imagine in drafting to fill your lineup. Goal gamers, not positions. I’m high-quality with streaming at tight finish.

Dangers: Choosing a TE within the first 4 or 5 rounds permits managers to safe the companies of a top-tier participant (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson or Darren Waller), all of whom are projected to attract at the least 100 targets. Ready on the place, nevertheless, means investing in gamers who aren’t as prominently featured (from a pass-catching perspective) and, subsequently, will not garner as many receiving alternatives (for instance, Kittle is the TE5 and projected to attract 85 seems to be, a considerable drop-off from Waller’s 100 anticipated targets). Using this technique means doubtlessly lacking out on gamers presenting with large upside, together with Jahmyr Gibbs and Chris Olaveeach of whom are coming off boards within the fourth spherical of 12-team workouts.

3. If you happen to do take a TE within the first 5 rounds, ought to that stop you from additionally taking a QB within the first 5 rounds?

Moody: By no means. By leveraging positional tiers, you may nonetheless construct a balanced group by taking that method. When the mud settles within the first 5 rounds of a 12-team league, you can have Tony Pollard, Amon-Ra St. BrownHockenson, Miles Sanders and Joe Burrow in your group. That is an excellent begin for any fantasy supervisor.

Bowen: Completely not. The highest three QBs in factors per recreation final season — Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Mahomes — had been all drafted throughout the first six rounds. If you happen to do draft a decent finish early, do not let that affect your philosophy on concentrating on cell QBs in your league. And so they go faster than you assume.

Dangers: Justin Fields and Justin Herbert are in style fifth-round choices. Per ESPN ADP knowledge, each QBs are being drafted after the top-four-ranked fantasy tight ends (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Waller). Rostering a QB and a TE within the first 5 rounds is actually doable, however it means playing on the upside of one other place (probably RB).

Karabell: In fact, however one ought to by no means take a QB within the first 5 rounds of a typical draft, and I are inclined to behave equally at tight finish. There simply aren’t sufficient protected, dependable working backs and huge receivers round to keep away from these positions within the first 5 rounds.

4. If you happen to wait till the later rounds, which TEs are you concentrating on this yr?

Bowen: Within the three 10-team leagues I play in, the place I sit and wait on the place, I am already eyeing up Pat Freiermuth, Evan Engram and Cole Kmet. Seam-stretching capacity right here, with passing schemes that cater to their route traits. In 12-teamers, my goal record is somewhat deeper and contains Tyler Higbee, Juwan Johnson, Greg Dulcich and Chigoziem Okonkwo. In the event that they bust? On to the weekly streamers. It is merely not a precedence place for me in fantasy.

Dangers: Dalton Schultz is a high-floor participant being drafted within the double-digit rounds. A dependable chain-mover who has managed top-12 fantasy numbers in back-to-back campaigns, Schultz figures to attract 5 to 6 seems to be per recreation in Houston. He isn’t a flashy decide, however he figures to be one of many extra constant producers on the place.

Moody: David NjokuJohnson, Okonkwo, Higbee, Gerald Everett, Hayden Hurst and Dulcich … all have the potential to exceed their fantasy projections.

Karabell: Schultz, Njoku and Higbee in 10-team leagues. Okonkwo and Dulcich in 12-teamers.