2023 Open Championship betting guide: 12 picks our expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s skilled prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is the host of the HeatStrokes podcast. You’ll be able to comply with him on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you’ll learn under to see his favourite performs for the Open Championship, which begins Thursday at Royal Liverpool. Preserve scrolling previous Kannon’s picks, and also you’ll additionally see information from Chirp, a free-to-play mobile platform that contains a vary of video games with attractive prizes, giving followers all types of how to have interaction within the motion with out risking any cash.

If one had been to ask me what my favourite main championship is in April, my reply can be the Masters. Ask me the identical query in July, although, and my reply is at all times the Open Championship. I’m torn between these two however am at all times equally fired up relying on the time of the yr. Ask my spouse the identical query, her reply is straightforward: The Open, as a result of he (Brady) sleeps on the sofa for 4 nights, having fun with dwell main championship golf within the wee hours for us stateside.

This week marks the 151st edition of The Openand for the third time in 17 years, the claret jug might be up for grabs at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England. Tiger Woods received at this course in 2006 with a rating of 18 below. Rory McIlroy received his final main so far at Hoylake in 2014 with a rating of 17 below.

Since McIlroy’s win, the course has changedby the use of a 2020 Martin Ebert renovation. Ebert moved most of the fairway bunkers to accommodate for right now’s longer sport. He lengthened the course by roughly 70 yards. He created a new 17th hole — a 135-yard par-3 with a small, elevated inexperienced, that options run-off areas on all sides, surrounded by treacherous bunkers.

The tenth gap additionally was modified from a simple par-5 to a demanding 500-plus-yard par-4. What was as soon as a par-72 format will play to a par-71 in 2023. The opening line for the 72-hole successful rating proposition guess was 268.5, which means one can select below or over a successful rating of 15.5 below par.

Woods famously averted each bunker in 2006 and solely as soon as hit driver off the tee. He led the sphere that week in Driving Accuracy. McIlroy additionally used few drivers off the tee in 2014 however nonetheless led the sphere in Driving Distance. The course was agency and quick and dried out in 2006 however was a lot softer in 2014. It seems to be like we are going to get the smooth model this week with regular rain within the forecast and minimal wind.

With a lot bother lurking, I feel technique off the tee might be essential this week. The intermediate tough isn’t too menacing however stray a lot farther and gamers will discover themselves in knee-high fescue grass. The course is flat with out the sand dunes we see at so many seaside Open programs however the fairway bunkers are penal. There is also inner out of bounds on 3 and 18. Greenside bunkers might be tough and short-game creativity might be wanted. Nevertheless, as is the case in any respect Opens, the inexperienced might be sluggish to guard the balls from rolling off ought to the wind turn out to be too frisky.

Given all of this, I really feel that accuracy off the tee trumps distance this week. Mid- to long-iron play might be necessary. Completely different from what we’re used to within the U.S., the place size and aggressive play is commonly rewarded, I imagine this course will demand a extra defensive strategy. Avoiding the difficulty might be paramount.

The talent units I checked out this week had been Strokes Gained: Strategy, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Across the Greens, Scrambling, Gap Proximity from 175-200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance, 3-Putt Avoidance and Strokes Gained on Par-4s measuring 450-500 yards. Most of those metrics are going to spit out outcomes from PGA Tour play — and given this week’s hyperlinks check might be totally different, emphasis on the stats ought to in all probability be lessened. Different components have to be taken under consideration.

For correlated programs, I checked out previous Open venues, Muirfield and Royal Troon; I additionally checked out Royal Portrush as a result of Ebert additionally carried out renovation work there. I checked out The Renaissance Membership the place they’ve performed the Scottish Open now for 5 straight seasons and stateside, TPC Sawgrass (Gamers Championship) and PGA Nationwide (Honda Basic). It’s attention-grabbing to notice that at Hoylake in 2006, two of the top-five gamers on the leaderboard had received the Gamers Championship and Jim Furyk had completed runner-up. In 2014, 4 of the highest 5 on the leaderboard had received the Gamers, with Furyk once more being in that bunch.

To Win the Open Championship (and to complete High 20)

Scottie Scheffler (+750)

I performed Scheffler to win outright and in addition end high 10. I performed the remainder of these listed under for a win and high 20. We all know the story right here — if Scheffler may even be a median putter this week, he ought to win. He’s on a run of 14 straight tournaments wherein he has gained two or extra strokes off the tee, and 5 straight wherein he has gained six or extra strokes on strategy — and has completed high 5 in seven straight begins. Since 2015, Scheffler has performed solely 22 rounds of hyperlinks golf however over that point has gained 1.85 strokes on the sphere. And, oh, by the best way, he additionally received the Gamers Championship earlier this season.

Tyrrell Hatton (27-1)

I struggled right here between Hatton and Xander Schauffele. Not solely are they shut in value but in addition in all the stats and different handicapping angles. Hatton has larger hyperlinks expertise, gaining over 1.7 strokes on the sphere over the course of 113 rounds of hyperlinks golf since 2015. However will the stress of successful in his residence nation get to him? I’m hoping not. He’s completed 4th earlier than on the Honda Basic, was second this yr on the Gamers, comes off of a sixth-place end on the Scottish Open and completed fifth at Portrush in 2019, and fifth at Troon in 2016.

Collin Morikawa (30-1)

Like Scheffler and Hatton, Morikawa additionally is great off the tee. He ranks fifth on Tour in Driving Accuracy and over the past 36 rounds he’s third on this discipline for SG: Strategy. He received the Open on debut in 2021 at Royal St. George’s, and in 20 rounds of hyperlinks golf since 2015, he’s gaining a stroke on the sphere. His sport has been up and down this season, however he’s coming off a playoff loss on the Rocket Mortgage, and within the majors, he has completed 10-26-14. I feel he reveals up right here once more this week.

Justin Rose (60-1)

It isn’t unusual for 40-somethings to win The Open. Size shouldn’t be as necessary as it’s in any of the opposite majors. Actually, 5 of the previous 10 open champions have been 35 or older. Expertise issues. Justin Rose might be 43 on the finish of this month and this might be his twentieth Open. Since 2015, in 66 rounds of hyperlinks golf, he’s gaining 1.66 strokes on the sphere. He has a win at Pebble Seashore earlier this yr in addition to a sixth-place end on the Gamers. He has completed high 10 thrice on the Honda Basic. He has every little thing it’s essential win at Hoylake: accuracy off the tee, large mid- to long-iron sport, glorious quick sport and is possibly the perfect bunker participant within the discipline. He was additionally twenty third right here at Royal Liverpool in 2014, twenty second at Troon in 2016 and twentieth at Portrush in 2019.

Adam Scott (80-1)

Just like Rose, Scott is one other elder statesman with a lot hyperlinks golf and Open Championship expertise. Scott might be taking part in in his twenty third Open and has 5 top-10 finishes, together with a runner-up in 2012. He’s received the Gamers Championship and the Honda Basic. He’s fifteenth on this discipline over the past 36 rounds for SG: Off the Tee and in addition Par-4s measuring 450-500 yards. Scott has completed high 10 at this course in each 2006 and ’14 and was additionally third at Muirfield in 2013.

Rickie Fowler (80-1)

No, this quantity is not out there. I guess it earlier than Rickie made his run on the U.S. Open again in June — however I nonetheless don’t thoughts a play on him at the moment between 25- and 30-1. Fowler has an amazing observe report on hyperlinks programs. He was runner-up to McIlroy at Hoylake again in 2014 and was sixth at Portrush in 2019. He’s additionally received the Scottish Open. He received and completed runner-up at each the Gamers Championship and the Honda Basic. In fact, he simply acquired his first win in practically 4.5 years on the Rocket Mortgage and is taking part in among the greatest golf of his profession. Since 2015, in 66 rounds of hyperlinks golf he has gained 1.58 strokes on the sphere. During the last 36 rounds, he’s sixth on this discipline for SG Strategy and second for SG Across the Inexperienced.

Hideki Matsuyama (90-1)

Matsuyama has been hit and miss on the Open Championship all through his profession however this quantity was excessive on a man who I imagine matches this explicit course properly. He completed thirty ninth right here in 2014 and, after all, since then, has received a significant championship. He’s missed the minimize in three British Opens but in addition has two top-20 finishes and took sixth at Muirfield in 2013. Thrice he has completed high 10 on the Gamers. During the last 36 rounds, Matsuyama is seventh on this discipline for SG: Strategy, fifteenth for SG: Across the Inexperienced, fourth in Gap Proximity from 175-200 yards, 14th from 200+ yards and fourth in Bogey Avoidance.

Si Woo Kim (165-1)

My one actual lengthy shot of the week — and apparently not solely mine as I’ve seen this quantity come all the way down to nearer to 125-1. Eight of the final 10 Open champs had a win earlier in that very same season, and Kim received the Sony Open earlier this yr. He additionally has two top-10 finishes on the Gamers together with a win. He’s twelfth on this discipline for SG : Off the Tee over the past 36 rounds, 14th on the par-4s at 450-500 yards and twenty eighth in SG: Strategy.

Full Event Head-to-Head Matchups (39-32-4 YTD)

Thorbjorn Olesen (-120) over Rasmus Hojgaard

Justin Rose (+117) over Matt Fitzpatrick

Si Woo Kim (-120) over Sahith Theegala

Xander Schauffele (-140) over Shane Lowry

Who Chirp customers assume will win