This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat e-newsletter. To learn the complete e-newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it often in your inbox.
The second half will get underway tomorrow evening, and the Padres are confronted with a frightening uphill climb. However on no account is it an insurmountable one.
San Diego presently sits in fourth place within the Nationwide League West, six video games out of a playoff spot. A red-hot Manny Machado delivered this message after the primary half got here to a detailed on Sunday afternoon:
“Everybody may use a break,” Machado stated. “So, get pleasure from these couple days off and get off your toes for somewhat bit. However like I advised all people, get your minds proper for the second half. As a result of it ain’t gonna be straightforward. However we’re gonna be prepared for it.”
They’d higher be. The second half opens with a pivotal four-game collection in Philadelphia — an opportunity to conquer some ghosts from final October. However extra importantly, it is an opportunity to achieve floor within the Wild Card race towards a crew the Padres would nearly definitely have to move to succeed in the postseason.
Proper now, the Padres are 43-47. The Phillies, in the meantime, are on an 87-win tempo. Let’s take a look at that quantity as a baseline. The Padres have to go 44-26 second half to succeed in 87 wins.
Can the Padres play at what can be a near-100-win tempo within the second half? Effectively, that’s a technique of framing it. However the Padres (nearly definitely) don’t must be a 100-win crew to succeed in the playoffs. They simply have to play like one for a stretch.
“It’s a problem,” supervisor Bob Melvin stated. “However I strive not to have a look at these items mathematically — like, it’s a must to win so many video games to get to ‘X.’ As a result of we’ve the power to go on a run, and for those who make a run, you’re proper there. Greater than something, that’s one thing that ought to resonate with us. If we go on stretch, we’ll be proper there, and that may give us an increasing number of momentum going ahead.
“However it’s simpler stated than executed. As a result of we haven’t executed it this 12 months up to now.”
Right here’s a fast midterm report on the Padres:
What we realized: Star energy alone received’t carry the Padres
San Diego’s roster is loaded with superstars. Some have underperformed within the first half. Some have lived as much as expectations. If all of these superstars click on within the second half, it’d go a good distance. However that hasn’t been the most important difficulty. The Padres’ depth — the underside of their lineup, their bench, the again of their rotation and the center innings of their bullpen — is tenuous. Can the rotation keep wholesome? Can gamers like Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham step up? Will the Padres make a deal for one more bat or a bullpen arm? These questions — not any questions on their superstars — will outline the second half.
Commerce Deadline technique: Be able to ‘pivot’
Talking on 97.3 The Fan a pair weeks in the past, common supervisor A.J. Preller espoused his perception that his crew stays a official contender, noting, “If issues change, then we’ll pivot from that standpoint. However proper now, the sensation with our group is: We’re succesful.” So that is the plan. The Padres are patrons till they are not. In the event that they purchase, there aren’t too many obvious holes, however the crew may definitely use a bat — maybe for a proper subject/DH position — and a bit extra pitching depth. If the Padres promote, then issues get awfully fascinating. Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Seth Lugo hit free company after the season. If the one aim is to win in 2023, all three are too integral to deal. But when the standings change over the subsequent few weeks, Preller should be open to that pivot.
Participant to observe: Blake Snell
Snell’s 2.85 ERA is by far the perfect mark of any qualifying pitcher not named to the All-Star Recreation — and a considerably higher mark than many gamers who had been. He ranks second within the NL with 132 strikeouts and first with a .200 opponents’ batting common. He’s additionally been the perfect pitcher in baseball for practically two monthswith a 0.68 ERA in his final 9 begins.
The sheer injustice of Snell not pitching in his hometown of Seattle apart, Snell can set his sights on larger issues within the second half. He’s pitching like a bona fide Cy Young candidate (an award he received with Tampa Bay in 2018). He’s additionally within the last 12 months of his contract, and if the Padres spiral out of the break, he may change into the market’s most respected non-Shohei Ohtani commerce piece. That’s clearly not their choice.
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Printed : 2023-07-13 19:24:44
